When the verdict in Derek Chauvin trial comes in, most likely this week, it could go three ways. I am making an off-the-top-of-my-head estimate that the likelihood of a murder or manslaughter conviction at 75%, a mistrial at 15%, and a not-guilty verdict at 10%. But what are the chances of a "mostly peaceful" riot irrespective of the verdict? Those, I think, have gotta be around 90%.
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